TL;DR: July’s cheery (!) Go Flux Yourself considers the end of knowledge and culture as we know it thanks to artificial general intelligence, technology-induced ‘relationship decay’, HR dissonance, and the breathtaking beauty of human skill …
Image created on Midjourney with the prompt “a massive meteor with an evil AI face about to crash down on Earth while ignorant people look at their smartphones in the style of an Edvard Munch painting”
The future
“The realisation of artificial general intelligence would be like a meteor coming down from above, stopping culture and knowledge as we know it.”
These are the words of warning from Gerd Leonhard, the German futurist with whom I have collaborated a few times, fortunately. Back in 2018, Gerd – a former musician who studied at Boston’s Berklee College of Music (he has a brilliant story about how jazz trumpeting great Miles Davis visited and played just one note that had all the students spellbound) – invited me over to the south of France to shape and sharpen his messaging around the brawl, as he saw it, between humans and tech.
Gerd published Technology vs. Humanity a couple of years earlier, but with things moving quickly, he engaged me to keep things fresh. He is always worth listening to and learning from, and I’m grateful that we have continued the conversation over the years – before, during, and now after the coronavirus pandemic. We caught up again recently, earlier in July, after Gerd delivered a hard-hitting webinar from which the above line comes. (I recommend you to watch the 41-minute talk here.)
As an aside, I had a good cackle at this dark cartoon Gerd used in his talk, too.
Back to the meteor idea, which is a twist on the 2021 apocalyptic political satire and black comedy Don’t Look Up, starring Leonardo DiCaprio. Last year Gerd produced a short film called Look Up Now.
Imagine a meteor hurtling towards Earth, not of rock and ice, but of silicon and code. This celestial body doesn’t threaten our physical existence but rather our monopoly on knowledge and intellect. This is Gerd’s stark vision of artificial general intelligence (AGI).
“We thought the idea of the asteroid hitting the earth would be good for the idea of AGI,” he tells me. “Because AI – and intelligent assistants (IA) – by itself is a big change, but it’s not existential in the sense of fundamentally changing everything. But a machine that would be generally intelligent that could surpass us in every possible cognitive job would be like an asteroid hitting us because it would basically be complete unemployment afterwards except for physical jobs.”
This looming “knowledge meteor” isn’t just a hypothetical scenario for the distant future. It’s a reality actively pursued by some of the world’s most powerful tech companies. As Gerd notes: “The biggest business ever is to replace humans with machines.”
The race towards AGI – or the singularity, or superintelligence, depending on your preferred phraseology – represents a seismic shift in human history that could redefine our role in the world. Yet, as with the fictional comet in Don’t Look Up, there’s an alarming lack of urgency in addressing this existential challenge.
While governments and regulatory bodies are beginning to grapple with the implications of AI, their efforts often fall short of the mark. For instance, the UK’s recent pledge to “get a handle” on AI lacks clear definitions and concrete action plans.
Meanwhile, the drive to dominate AI development continues unabated in the United States, with Donald Trump’s team planning a “Manhattan Project on AI”, according to a Washington Post report in mid-July. This plan includes creating industry-led agencies to study AI models and protect them from foreign powers, with a section ominously titled “Make America First in AI”.
The original Manhattan Project, started during World War II, led to the production of the world’s first nuclear weapons. “If we started a Manhattan Project for AI, we’re essentially saying you have unlimited resources, unlimited freedom, and no moral constraints,” says Gerd. “It’s inviting all the mad scientists who just want to build whatever they can without any consideration for ethical and moral issues.”
Certainly, the historical parallel is chilling, reminding us of the unforeseen consequences that can arise from unbridled technological advancement. Who, Gerd asks, will serve as humanity’s “mission control” in this high-stakes environment? There’s no clear answer.
Unlike previous existential threats like nuclear weapons or climate change, AGI development is largely driven by private companies motivated by profit rather than public interest. Indeed, arguably the most influential person in this space, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman, has the motto “No one knows what happens next” above his desk – as I pointed out in January’s inaugural Go Flux Yourself.
The financial incentives driving AI development are enormous, creating what Gerd describes as “a huge temptation to rush ahead without considering the consequences of building something larger than us”. This sprint towards AGI is particularly concerning, given the potential implications. An entity that “knows everything about everybody at any given time and combines that in a digital brain of an IQ of one billion,” Gerd argues, “cannot possibly end well for us.”
It’s important to stress that my Swiss-based friend is not arguing against all AI development. He distinguishes between narrow AI or “intelligent assistants” and AGI. The former, he believes, can be “extremely useful for businesses like better software, offering us powerful solutions, more efficiency”. The latter – a general intelligence surpassing human capabilities across the board – poses existential risks.
This nuanced view is crucial as we navigate the future of AI. It’s not about halting progress but about directing it responsibly. Hence why the Manhattan Project on AI, which would likely trigger an arms race, is bad news for humanity.
“The wolf you feed is the wolf that wins,” points out Gerd. We have to feed the right wolf, and must prioritise human values alongside technological progress. It’s incredibly challenging, of course, and requires meaningful collaboration between policymakers, AI researchers, ethicists, and business leaders. But by developing a shared understanding of AI’s potential and pitfalls, we can craft regulations that foster innovation while protecting society’s interests – before it’s too late.
The present
While the aforementioned meteor is not yet in our orbit, thankfully, there are plenty of examples of how technology other than AGI is negatively impacting our lives. Last month, I wrote about the rising “loneliness epidemic”.
Shortly afterwards, I interviewed Eric Mosley, CEO of WorkHuman, who offers a stark image of the current business landscape, where the fabric of workplace relationships is fraying badly.
“What is obvious to everyone is that the less you interact with people physically, the more destructive that is to the relationship capital and the relationship infrastructure in companies,” the Boston-based Irishman says. This decay in social connections isn’t just a fleeting trend – it’s a fundamental shift that threatens the foundations of corporate culture.
The pandemic-induced shift to remote work initially rode on the coattails of pre-existing relationships. However, as Eric continues: “Now we’re years into this and have a much more prevalent work-from-home culture. Relationship decay is real, and culture is affected by that.”
That phrase, relationship decay, is perfect for revealing how rotten things are – at work, and elsewhere. Yet the erosion of workplace bonds manifests in subtle yet profound ways. The casual conversations before and after meetings, the impromptu chats by the coffee machine – these seemingly insignificant interactions are the lifeblood of a vibrant business culture.
In their absence, we’re left with what Eric describes as a sterile, transactional work environment. “You join a Zoom call, conduct your business, then disconnect and retreat to your pathetic little kitchen for tea. There’s no genuine interaction – it’s a cycle of isolation.”
The cumulative effect of these missed connections is staggering. “You have to understand the compounding effect of that difference across thousands of company interactions over years,” Eric warns. “It adds up to a profound difference.”
This relationship decay has given rise to a new breed of employee – the “mentally transient” worker. These individuals, lacking strong ties to their colleagues or a sense of community, are merely going through the motions.
Yet, herein lies a paradox that HR professionals must grapple with. Despite the obvious detrimental effects of reduced physical interaction, employees continue to push for more remote work options. Eric describes this as a “complete dissonance and disconnect between the reality of what that results in and the desire of companies to counteract it”.
This dissonance presents a significant challenge for HR leaders. How do you balance the desire for flexibility with the need for meaningful workplace connections? The solution lies in reimagining the office as a hub for collaboration and community-building rather than a mandatory daily destination.
As businesses grapple with these shifts in workplace dynamics, we must also be mindful of unintended consequences in other areas. This last week, I interviewed Nicola Millard, Principal Innovation Partner at BT Group, for a piece previewing the London version of Digital Transformation EXPO (where I’ll be on stage again in October). She highlights an emerging trend that parallels the workplace disconnect, “shadow customers” – people who lack the confidence or ability to navigate digital platforms.
She exemplifies this through her personal experience, acting as a digital proxy for her 86-year-old Mother. While her Mum can make telephone calls, Nicola handles all online interactions, from shopping to managing accounts, effectively becoming the “customer behind the customer” in an increasingly digital world.
As businesses increasingly shift towards digital channels, they risk alienating a segment of their customer base that needs more confidence or ability to navigate these platforms.
This trend reminds us that we must not lose sight of the human element in our rush to embrace digital transformation. Just as some employees struggle with a fully remote work environment, some customers may feel left behind by purely digital interactions.
The parallel between these two trends is striking. In both cases, there’s a risk of losing vital connections – whether it’s between colleagues or between businesses and their customers. And in both cases, the solution lies in finding a balance between digital efficiency and human touch.
The past
In the recent past – i.e. in July – I’ve written or spoken for a variety of clients about the future of insurance, the future of education, and the future of the workplace. It’s been a fun, productive month. I even began a new column for Low No Drinker Magazine, called Upper Bottom – the same as the weekly sobriety podcast I began almost exactly six months ago.
But I’ve also found time to enrich myself with art and culture. I took my family to the Summer Exhibition at the Royal Academy in London, which I hope will inspire them. I also snook off solo on a Monday afternoon to catch the Beyond the Bassline exhibition at the British Library before it closed.
The latter chronicled 500 years of black British music, and writing about it now makes me think again about Gerd’s story of Miles Davis playing one note with such haunting quality that it made it so memorable.
I’m optimistic that human skills will always be valued more than technological achievements. The Paris Olympic Games, which are in full flow now, are an important reminder that there is breathtaking and life-affirming beauty to be found in people going faster, higher, and stronger – as per the Olympic motto, Citius, Altius, Fortius.
Three years ago, the organisers added another Latin word for the Tokyo Games: Communiter. It translates as “together”. In this mad and increasingly often bad world, we need that togetherness more than ever.
Statistics of the month
- While executives push for return-to-office mandates, 48% of managers admit that their teams are more productive when they adopt hybrid work (Owl Labs’ annual State of Hybrid Work study).
- Remember the Great Resignation? This is worse. Over a quarter (28%) of the 56,000 workers surveyed said they were “very or extremely likely” to move on from their current companies. In 2023 that figure stood at 26%, and at 19% in 2022 (PwC).
- Two-thirds (66%) of the UK workforce do not feel their work environment allows them to partake in self-care and look after their well-being (People Management).
Stay fluxed – and get in touch! Let’s get fluxed together …
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Oliver Pickup 